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Tao Finetune Kumo Forecast

NVIDIAOfficialCreated by NVIDIA Corporation

  • Skill
  • Tool integration
  • Data and AI
  • Apache-2.0
  • Medium risk

From the author

Kumo-Forecast — transformer-based multivariate time series forecasting with DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval), interpretability, and fine-tuning. Use when the user asks to "forecast with Kumo-Forecast", "run forecasting inference", "use perform_forecasting", "DARR mode", "context-enhanced forecasting", "lag horizon attribution", "interpretability", "fine-tune forecasting", "fine-tune forecasting with automl", "hyper-parameter optimization with forecasting", or mentions "kumo-forecast", "moment_head_512_6hr", or "run8_best_model_cr".
— the description by NVIDIA Corporation

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

Kumo-Forecast provides a robust framework for multivariate time series forecasting using transformer-based models. It supports standard inference, context-enhanced kNN retrieval (DARR mode) for improved accuracy, and a model-agnostic interpretability framework that generates detailed diagnostic reports. The skill includes fine-tuning capabilities to adapt pretrained models to specific domains, supporting both standard and cross-channel architectures. It is designed for integration with AutoML workflows for hyperparameter optimization.

What it does

  • Performs multivariate time series forecasting using transformer-based models.
  • Enables DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval) to blend direct predictions with historical context.
  • Provides model-agnostic interpretability, including lag-horizon attribution and semantic flow analysis.
  • Supports fine-tuning of forecasting heads on custom datasets with optional cross-channel layer adaptation.
  • Integrates with AutoML runners for hyperparameter optimization of training and inference parameters.
  • Generates diagnostic reports and visualizations for model performance and stability.

When to use it

  • When you need to perform multivariate time series forecasting on structured data.
  • When you want to improve forecast accuracy by leveraging historical context via DARR.
  • When you require interpretability features to understand model predictions and lag-horizon dependencies.
  • When you need to adapt a pretrained forecasting model to a specific domain through fine-tuning.
  • When you are setting up hyperparameter optimization for forecasting models.

Advantages

  • Leverages powerful transformer backbones with pretrained weights.
  • Flexible inference modes including standard and context-enhanced retrieval.
  • Comprehensive interpretability tools for diagnostic analysis.
  • Supports fine-tuning with configurable encoder/embedder freezing.
  • AutoML-ready for efficient hyperparameter search.

Usage examples

“Forecast with Kumo-Forecast using my sensor data.”
The agent will execute the perform_forecasting function using your CSV data and the default Kumo-Forecast checkpoint to generate a forecast DataFrame.
“Run DARR mode forecasting with my historical context.”
The agent will use the provided context_df to build a kNN memory and blend it with the direct model prediction based on your specified alpha and k parameters.
“Fine-tune Kumo-Forecast on my custom dataset.”
The agent will initiate a training run using your CSV, adapting the forecasting head to your data while optionally using cross-channel attention.
“Explain the interpretability features of Kumo-Forecast.”
The agent will describe how to enable interpretability mode to generate lag-horizon attribution, semantic flow, and trajectory stability reports.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/nvidia/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast/download
  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip tao-finetune-kumo-forecast.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by NVIDIA Corporation

Kumo-Forecast

Transformer-based multivariate time series forecasting using self-supervised pretraining on diverse temporal data. Three inference modes: standard (direct forecast), DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval blending), and interpretability (latent trajectory extraction, semantic flow, lag×horizon attribution, trajectory stability, and diagnostic ratios — full explanation bundle with PDF report). Fine-tuning adapts the forecasting head — and optionally the cross-channel layer — to your domain.

Source code: https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS Pretrained weights: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Kumo-Forecast

External dependencies

DependencyPurposeInstall
Python 3.10+Runtimehttps://www.python.org/downloads/
uvPackage + environment managerpip install uv
CUDA toolkit (optional)GPU accelerationhttps://developer.nvidia.com/cuda-downloads
matplotlib (optional)Interpretability PDF report, heatmap PNG, flow + stability chartsuv add matplotlib

Credentials

nvidia/Kumo-Forecast is a public repo — no token required for downloading weights. If you hit a 401/403 (gated access or license not accepted) or a 504 on first download, see the Known pitfalls section.

Quick start

git clone --branch main --single-branch https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS Kumo-TS
cd Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast
uv sync --group dev
uv pip install -e .          # editable install — required for clean sdk.* imports

# Standard inference (auto-downloads weights from HF on first run, no auth needed)
uv run python sdk/quick_example.py

Inference

Import and call perform_forecasting from sdk/forecasting.py. It auto-downloads weights, standardizes input, runs autoregressive rollout for long horizons, and returns a DataFrame with {target_column}_forecast rows for the requested horizon.

import sys, pandas as pd
sys.path.append("/path/to/Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast")  # clone Kumo-TS with --branch main
from sdk.forecasting import ForecastingConfig, perform_forecasting

df = pd.read_csv("your_data.csv")   # must have timestamp + numeric target column

config = ForecastingConfig(
    timestamp_column="timestamp",    # parseable datetime column
    target_column="target",          # primary target to forecast
    seq_len=512,                     # input context length (rows consumed)
    forecast_horizon=72,             # steps ahead to predict (max 512)
    model_horizon=72,                # native model horizon; change when using custom weights
    standardizer_pkl="standardizer.pkl",   # auto-downloaded from HF if missing
    ckpt="run8_best_model_cr.pt",          # auto-downloaded; see Checkpoints table
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config)
# Returns DataFrame: timestamp | {target_column}_forecast  (forecast_horizon rows)
print(results.head())

For regular inference, put forecasting arguments in YAML and pass the file as config. Start from the fully commented template in sdk/forecasting_inference_config.yaml.

inference:
  # Number of historical rows consumed for the input context window.
  seq_len: 512
  # Number of future rows to predict.
  forecast_horizon: 72
  # Native horizon used when training the checkpoint.
  model_horizon: 72
  # Enable cross-channel attention for multivariate forecasting.
  use_cross_channel: true
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config="sdk/forecasting_inference_config.yaml")

The YAML can be flat or use a top-level inference: section inside a larger TAO/AutoML spec. Unknown keys raise ValueError.

Checkpoints
FileModeDownloaded when
run8_best_model_cr.ptDefault (cross-channel on)use_cross_channel=True (default)
moment_head_512_6hr.ptStandard (no cross-channel)use_cross_channel=False
standardizer.pklBothAlways

Set use_cross_channel=False in ForecastingConfig or YAML to use the standard checkpoint:

results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=ForecastingConfig(use_cross_channel=False))

DARR mode (context-enhanced forecasting)

Supply context_df to enable DARR: the SDK builds a kNN memory from historical windows and blends direct predictions with retrieved neighbors (alpha * direct + (1 - alpha) * kNN).

context_df = pd.read_csv("historical_data.csv")   # needs ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows

config = ForecastingConfig(
    forecast_horizon=72,
    alpha=0.2,                  # 0.2 = 20% direct, 80% kNN (default: 0.01)
    k=64,                       # number of nearest neighbors
    temperature=0.05,           # kNN softmax temperature
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config, context_df=context_df)

Context and input datasets do not need identical columns — the SDK aligns to common features and warns when columns differ. Both must share timestamp_column and target_column.

Interpretability

Set interpretability=True to activate the Model-Agnostic Interpretability Framework. It produces localized, horizon-specific, time-aware explanations — including lag×horizon attribution, semantic flow, trajectory stability, diagnostic ratios, and (for multivariate inputs) channel-axis attribution and coupling analysis.

For the full parameter reference, output bundle, and component descriptions, see Kumo-Forecast/README.md.

Fine-tuning

Fine-tune the forecasting head (encoder/embedder frozen by default) on your own time series. --ckpt-init auto warm-starts from the published Kumo-Forecast checkpoint; --ckpt-init none trains a fresh head from the base backbone.

cd /path/to/Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast
# Without cross-channel (uses moment_head_512_6hr.pt)
uv run python examples/finetune_example.py \
  --csv /path/to/timeseries.csv \
  --timestamp-col timestamp \
  --target-cols target \
  --seq-len 512 --forecast-horizon 72 \
  --epochs 5 --batch-size 8 --lr 1e-4 \
  --output-dir artifacts/finetune_my_data

# With cross-channel layer (uses run8_best_model_cr.pt)
uv run python examples/finetune_example.py \
  --csv /path/to/timeseries.csv \
  --timestamp-col timestamp \
  --target-cols sensor_1,sensor_2,sensor_3 \
  --use-cross-channel --cross-channel-heads 8 \
  --epochs 5 \
  --output-dir artifacts/finetune_cross_channel
Fine-tuning arguments
ArgumentDefaultDescription
--run-config—YAML config from AutoMLRunner ({config_path}). CLI flags override file values.
--csvrequired*Single CSV split temporally into train/val
--train-csvrequired*Training CSV (mutually exclusive with --csv)
--val-csv—Validation CSV when --train-csv is used
--timestamp-coltimestampDatetime column to exclude from features
--target-colsall numericComma-separated columns to forecast
--model-nameAutonLab/MOMENT-1-largeBackbone model identifier
--ckpt-initautoauto = published Kumo-Forecast weights; none = fresh head; or path to .pt
--standardizer-initstandardizer.pklStandardizer pickle used when --ckpt-init auto
--repo-idnvidia/Kumo-ForecastHuggingFace repo for auto-download
--seq-len512Input context length
--forecast-horizon72Steps ahead to predict
--strideforecast_horizonSliding window stride (None → horizon)
--val-ratio0.1Validation fraction when --csv is used
--test-ratio0.0Test holdout fraction when --csv is used
--no-standardizefalseDisable per-dataset standardization
--epochs5Training epochs
--batch-size8Per-GPU batch size
--lr1e-4AdamW learning rate (OneCycleLR scheduler)
--weight-decay0.0AdamW weight decay
--head-dropout0.1Forecasting head dropout
--max-norm5.0Gradient norm clip
--num-workers0DataLoader workers
--seed13Random seed
--output-dirartifacts/finetuneOutput directory
--local-files-onlyfalseDo not download backbone weights from HuggingFace
--unfreeze-encoderfalseTrain the transformer encoder too
--unfreeze-embedderfalseTrain the patch embedder too
--use-cross-channelfalseAdd cross-channel attention layer
--cross-channel-heads8Attention heads in cross-channel layer
--cross-channel-dropout0.1Dropout in the cross-channel layer
--num-gpusall availableNumber of GPUs for DDP fine-tuning; set 1 to force single-GPU

*One of --csv or --train-csv is required.

Inference with fine-tuned checkpoint
config = ForecastingConfig(
    timestamp_column="timestamp",
    target_column="target",
    seq_len=512,
    forecast_horizon=72,
    model_horizon=72,
    standardizer_pkl="artifacts/finetune_my_data/standardizer.pkl",
    ckpt="artifacts/finetune_my_data/best_model.pt",
    use_cross_channel=False,   # set True if trained with --use-cross-channel
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config)

Data requirements

PropertyRequirement
Rows≥ seq_len (default 512) for inference; validation split must also have ≥ seq_len + forecast_horizon rows
Columnstimestamp + one or more numeric columns; NULLs filled with zeros automatically
TimestampParseable by pandas; no NULLs; uniform frequency inferred from mode of diffs
TargetMust be numeric; NULLs filled with zeros
forecast_horizonMax 512 steps; beyond model's native 72 triggers autoregressive rollout
DARR context≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows; must share timestamp + target columns with input

Output structure

Inference (standard / DARR):

DataFrame: timestamp | {target_column}_forecast   (forecast_horizon rows)

Fine-tuning (--output-dir artifacts/finetune_my_data):

artifacts/finetune_my_data/
├── best_model.pt            # checkpoint with lowest validation MSE
├── standardizer.pkl         # normalization statistics for this dataset
├── finetune_metadata.json   # model config, channels, best epoch, all args
├── metrics.json             # scalar summary: {"val_mse": float, "val_mae": float} — consumed by AutoML runner
└── epoch_metrics.json       # per-epoch list: [{epoch, train_mse, val_mse, val_mae}, ...]

Hardware

TierSetupNotes
Minimum1× CPUFunctional; slow for long horizons
Recommended1× NVIDIA GPU (≥8 GB VRAM)Strongly recommended for fine-tuning
Apple SiliconMPSAuto-detected; on par with CPU for this workload
Multi-GPU fine-tuning2+× NVIDIA GPUsAuto DDP via --num-gpus (defaults to all visible GPUs)

AutoML (HPO: hyperparameter optimization)

This skill is AutoML-enabled for both fine-tuning and DARR inference. When an HPO request arrives, route it through tao-skill-bank:tao-run-automl with this model's skill_dir.

Read references/automl.md when the user asks for AutoML/HPO setup, tunable parameters, runner examples, inference trial scripts, DARR HPO, or AutoML result handoff details.

Known pitfalls

SymptomCauseFix
ModuleNotFoundError: backboneEditable install missingRun uv pip install -e . from Kumo-Forecast/
HfHubHTTPError: 401 / 403Model license not accepted or gated forkAccept license on HF repo page; or huggingface-cli login
504 / timeout on first weight downloadHF CDN throttles unauthenticated requests — public repos are still subject to this on first downloadSet export HUGGINGFACE_HUB_TOKEN="$HF_TOKEN" before running; authenticated requests use a more reliable CDN path
ValueError: DataFrame has X rows but seq_len requires YInput too shortProvide ≥ seq_len (512) rows or reduce --seq-len
ValueError: forecast_horizon must be <= 512Horizon too largeSplit into multiple perform_forecasting calls
ValueError: No common numeric columns (DARR)Context has no overlapping featuresEnsure context shares ≥ 1 numeric column with input
ValueError: Context DataFrame has X rows but requires YContext too smallContext needs ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows
Interpretability PDF skipped: matplotlib not installedMissing optional depuv add matplotlib or use interpretability_output="json"
ValueError: No training windows (finetune)Data too short for windowsReduce --seq-len / --forecast-horizon, or increase dataset size
Stale environment errors mentioning backbone packageOld lock fileuv cache clean && uv sync --group dev

Files

Requirements and compatibility

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Needs: Declares allowed tools, Needs a command-line tool, Needs Python

The author says: Requires Python 3.10+ and uv. CUDA GPU recommended; Apple Silicon (MPS) and CPU supported.

Security

What our scanner noticed· Medium risk

  • Large base64-encoded blobs
  • Instructions that use the network

A static scan is not a guarantee. Skills are third-party content: review a skill before you let an agent use it.

Attribution and licence

Created by
NVIDIA Corporation
Publisher
NVIDIA (Official)
Source
NVIDIA/skills · skills/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast · commit fce3cca
Licence
Apache License 2.0 (redistribution allowed)
  • LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE-APACHE)
  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
Synced

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Download ZIP

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