Earnings Analysis

Detailed Workflow for Earnings Updates

This document provides detailed step-by-step instructions for each phase of the earnings update process.

⚠️⚠️⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: ALWAYS USE THE LATEST EARNINGS DATA ⚠️⚠️⚠️

STOP AND READ THIS FIRST:

Training data is OUTDATED. Actively search for and retrieve the MOST RECENT earnings materials. Using outdated earnings data is the #1 mistake in earnings analysis.

BEFORE STARTING:

1. CHECK TODAY'S DATE - Write down the current date

2. SEARCH FOR LATEST - Use web search to find the most recent earnings

3. VERIFY THE DATE - Confirm the earnings release is within the last 3 months

4. IF OLDER THAN 3 MONTHS - Wrong quarter obtained, search again

Phase 1: Earnings Data Collection (30-60 minutes)

Step 1: Identify the Latest Earnings Period

CRITICAL: ALWAYS SEARCH FOR THE LATEST EARNINGS - DO NOT RELY ON KNOWLEDGE CUTOFF. CRITICAL: NEVER USE EARNINGS DATA FROM TRAINING - IT IS OUTDATED.

Step 1a: Search for Latest Earnings Release

🚨 ACTIVELY SEARCH - training data is outdated. 🚨

MANDATORY STEP 1: CHECK TODAY'S DATE

• Write down today's date explicitly: [Month] [Day], [Year]

• Use this to verify that any earnings found are within 3 months

• Example: "Today is October 29, 2024"

MANDATORY STEP 2: SEARCH FOR "LATEST EARNINGS"

• Use web search with queries like:

  • [Company name] latest earnings results

  • [Company name] most recent quarterly earnings

  • [Ticker symbol] earnings latest quarter

• OR search company investor relations site:

  • Go to investor.[company].com or [company].com/investors

  • Navigate to "Press Releases", "News", or "Earnings" section

  • Sort by date to find MOST RECENT release

  • Look for keywords: "earnings", "results", "financial results", "quarterly results"

MANDATORY STEP 3: VERIFY THE RELEASE DATE

• Look at the date of the earnings release found

• Calculate: Is this date within the last 3 months from today?

• If YES → Proceed to next step

• If NO (older than 3 months) → 🚨 WRONG QUARTER - Search again for more recent

❌ COMMON MISTAKES TO AVOID:

• ❌ Using earnings data from training without searching

• ❌ Assuming "Q3 2024" is latest based on expectations

• ❌ Grabbing the first earnings release found without checking the date

• ❌ Not comparing the release date to today's date

• ❌ Proceeding when the release is 4+ months old

✅ CORRECT APPROACH:

• ✅ Check today's date first

• ✅ Search explicitly for "latest" or "most recent"

• ✅ Read the actual release date on the materials

• ✅ Confirm release date is within 3 months of today

• ✅ If unsure, search again with different terms

MANDATORY STEP 4: IDENTIFY THE QUARTER

• Read the title/headline to identify the quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or fiscal quarter)

• Read the release date on the document itself

• Verify both the quarter name AND the date are recent

3. Alternative search methods if IR site is unclear:

   • Web search: [Company name] latest earnings results

   • Web search: [Company name] most recent quarterly earnings

   • Web search: [Ticker symbol] earnings latest quarter

   • SEC EDGAR: Search for company and look at most recent 10-Q or 10-K filing date

Example searches that find latest data:

• "Nike latest earnings results" → Returns most recent quarter reported

• "AAPL most recent quarterly earnings" → Shows latest Apple earnings

• "Tesla Q3 2024 earnings" → Results confirm Q3 2024 exists

Step 1b: Understand Company's Fiscal Calendar

After identifying the latest quarter from search, understand the company's fiscal year to interpret it correctly:

Common fiscal year patterns:

• Calendar year (CY): Q1=Jan-Mar, Q2=Apr-Jun, Q3=Jul-Sep, Q4=Oct-Dec

• Nike fiscal: Q1=Jun-Aug, Q2=Sep-Nov, Q3=Dec-Feb, Q4=Mar-May (May fiscal year-end)

• Apple fiscal: Q1=Oct-Dec, Q2=Jan-Mar, Q3=Apr-Jun, Q4=Jul-Sep (September fiscal year-end)

• Walmart fiscal: Q1=Feb-Apr, Q2=May-Jul, Q3=Aug-Oct, Q4=Nov-Jan (January fiscal year-end)

Many companies state their fiscal year in the earnings release header. Search [company] fiscal year calendar if needed.

Step 1c: MANDATORY VERIFICATION - Verify Latest Data Obtained

🛑 STOP - DO NOT PROCEED until verifying ALL of these:

• [ ] ✅ Today's date written down: [Month] [Day], [Year]

• [ ] ✅ Actively searched using "latest earnings" or "most recent earnings"

• [ ] ✅ Earnings release date found: [Month] [Day], [Year]

• [ ] ✅ Verified release is within 3 months of today (do the math!)

• [ ] ✅ Did NOT assume the quarter based on today's date alone

• [ ] ✅ Can see the actual press release confirming the quarter/period

• [ ] ✅ Opened and read the actual earnings materials (not just assumed they exist)

🚨 RED FLAGS - If ANY of these are true, WRONG quarter obtained:

• 🚨 Release date is more than 90 days old

• 🚨 Relying on expectations rather than what was FOUND by searching

• 🚨 Have not actually SEEN a press release or filing confirming this quarter exists

• 🚨 Used data from training without searching

• 🚨 Cannot state the exact release date

• 🚨 Release date found is from 2023 or earlier (when today is 2024+)

IF ANY RED FLAGS PRESENT: STOP and search again. Do not proceed with outdated data.

Step 1c: Handle Naming Variations

Companies use different terminology - recognize these patterns:

Quarter terminology:

• "Q1 2024", "Q1 FY24", "First Quarter 2024", "1Q24"

• "Third Quarter Fiscal 2024", "Q3 FY2024", "3Q FY24"

Earnings release titles:

• "[Company] Reports Q3 2024 Results"

• "[Company] Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results"

• "[Company] Q3 Revenue Grew 15% Year-over-Year"

SEC filing searches:

• Company name may differ from common name (e.g., "Meta Platforms, Inc." vs "Facebook")

• Search by ticker symbol to find filings reliably

• Look for most recent 10-Q (quarterly) or 10-K (annual if Q4)

Step 2: Gather Earnings Materials

After SEARCHING FOR and confirming the latest quarter, collect the following:

⚠️ IMPORTANT: SEARCH for and ACCESS actual documents - do not rely on training data.

Primary Materials (REQUIRED):

• Earnings press release - Usually on company investor relations site under "Press Releases" or "News"

  • Navigate to IR site and find the actual press release

  • Search patterns: "[Company name] latest earnings", "[Company name] Q[X] [Year] earnings results"

  • Look for PDF or HTML version

  • Verify the date matches what was found in Step 1 (should be within last 1-3 months)

  • Read the actual document to confirm the quarter and get reported numbers

• 10-Q or 10-K filing - On SEC EDGAR (sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html)

  • Search by ticker symbol

  • For quarters 1-3: Look for most recent 10-Q

  • For Q4: Look for 10-K (annual report)

  • Note: May be filed 1-5 days after earnings release

  • Direct link format: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=[accession-number]

• Earnings call transcript - 🚨 VERIFY THE DATE ON THE TRANSCRIPT 🚨

  • Search for: "[Company] latest earnings call transcript" or "[Company] Q[X] [Year] earnings call transcript"

  • Sources:

    • Company IR site (some post transcripts directly)

    • Seeking Alpha: Search "[Company] [latest quarter] earnings call transcript"

    • AlphaStreet, Motley Fool (alternative sources)

  • CRITICAL DATE CHECK:

    • ✅ Before using ANY transcript, verify the date on the transcript itself

    • ✅ The transcript date MUST match the earnings release date from Step 1

    • ✅ If transcript says "Q2 2023" but release was "Q3 2024", WRONG transcript obtained

    • 🚨 Common mistake: Grabbing an old transcript without checking the date

  • If transcript not yet available, listen to webcast replay or note to wait for transcript

Supplemental Materials (if available):

• Investor presentation/slides - Often posted on IR site alongside press release

  • Usually titled "Q[X] [Year] Earnings Presentation" or "Investor Presentation"

  • PDF format with slides management presented during earnings call

• Supplemental data file - Some companies provide Excel files with detailed metrics

  • Look for "Supplemental Financial Information" or "Investor Data Sheet"

Reference Materials (for comparison):

• Prior quarter results - For QoQ comparison

  • From prior quarter's earnings release (90 days ago)

• Prior year same quarter - For YoY comparison

  • From same quarter last year (4 quarters ago)

• Prior estimates - If this company was previously covered

  • From last earnings update or initiation report

  • Check what was estimated for this quarter's metrics

• Consensus estimates - From Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv, or Yahoo Finance

  • CRITICAL: Use estimates from BEFORE earnings release

  • Look for "as of [date before earnings]" to ensure pre-announcement consensus

  • Needed for beat/miss analysis

🛑 MANDATORY VERIFICATION before proceeding to Step 3:

DATES - Verify ALL dates match:

• [ ] ✅ Today's date written down: _______________

• [ ] ✅ Earnings release date: _______________ (MUST be within 3 months of today)

• [ ] ✅ Earnings call transcript date: _______________ (MUST match release date ±1 day)

• [ ] ✅ 10-Q/10-K filing date: _______________ (MUST be same quarter as release)

• [ ] ✅ ALL materials show SAME quarter (e.g., all say "Q3 2024", not mixed quarters)

SEARCH & ACCESS - Verify active search completed:

• [ ] ✅ SEARCHED for "latest earnings" (not assumed based on current date)

• [ ] ✅ ACCESSED actual earnings press release and read it

• [ ] ✅ OPENED actual earnings call transcript and verified date

• [ ] ✅ CONFIRMED this is the MOST RECENT quarter by checking dates

• [ ] ✅ Have full financial results (revenue, EPS, margins, etc.) from actual release

• [ ] ✅ Have pre-earnings consensus estimates with source date

🚨 RED FLAGS - STOP if ANY of these are true:

• 🚨 Did NOT actually search for or access the earnings materials

• 🚨 Working from memory or training data instead of current documents

• 🚨 The earnings release date is more than 90 days old

• 🚨 Cannot state the EXACT DATE of the earnings release

• 🚨 The transcript date does NOT match the release date

• 🚨 Materials show different quarters (e.g., release says Q3 but transcript says Q2)

• 🚨 Grabbed the first result without verifying the date

Step 3: Extract Key Metrics

Create a structured summary:

REPORTED RESULTS vs. ESTIMATES:
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
                    Reported    Our Est    Consensus    Beat/(Miss)
Revenue             $X,XXX      $X,XXX     $X,XXX       $XX (X%)
Gross Margin        XX.X%       XX.X%      XX.X%        XXbps
EBITDA              $XXX        $XXX       $XXX         $XX (X%)
Operating Profit    $XXX        $XXX       $XXX         $XX (X%)
EPS (Adjusted)      $X.XX       $X.XX      $X.XX        $X.XX
EPS (GAAP)          $X.XX       $X.XX      $X.XX        $X.XX

KEY BUSINESS METRICS:
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
[Metric 1]          XXX         XXX        XXX          +X% YoY
[Metric 2]          XXX         XXX        XXX          +X% YoY
[Metric 3]          XXX         XXX        XXX          +X% YoY

Step 4: Identify Key Themes from Call

Listen to or read earnings call transcript and note:

• Management's tone (confident, cautious, defensive?)

• Key topics emphasized (product launches, geographic trends, competition)

• Questions from analysts (what are investors concerned about?)

• Guidance provided (raised, lowered, maintained, introduced?)

• Any surprises or unexpected commentary

Phase 2: Analysis (2-3 hours)

Step 5: Beat/Miss Analysis

For EACH key metric that beat or missed, explain:

If BEAT:

• What drove the outperformance?

• Was it one-time or sustainable?

• Did management guide higher going forward?

• How does this impact our thesis?

If MISS:

• What went wrong?

• Was it company-specific or industry-wide?

• Is management taking corrective action?

• How does this impact our thesis?

Example Format:

■ **Revenue Beat by 3% Driven by Strong DTC Performance**

Revenue of $13.5B exceeded our estimate of $13.1B by $400M (3%) and consensus
of $13.2B by $300M (2%). The outperformance was driven primarily by Direct-to-
Consumer channels, which grew 18% YoY (vs. our 12% estimate), offsetting
weaker-than-expected wholesale (-5% vs. flat estimate). Management cited strong
digital demand and successful product launches (Pegasus 40 running shoe, new
Jordan colorways) as key drivers. DTC now represents 42% of total revenue vs.
38% a year ago, demonstrating successful channel shift strategy.

Step 6: Segment/Geographic/Product Analysis

Analyze performance by:

• Business segment (if multi-segment company)

• Geography (North America, Europe, China, etc.)

• Product category

• Channel (retail, wholesale, e-commerce)

Identify:

• What outperformed expectations?

• What underperformed?

• Trends vs. prior quarters

• Management commentary on outlook for each area

Step 7: Margin Analysis

Analyze profitability:

• Gross margin: up or down? why?

• Operating margin: up or down? why?

• Key drivers (pricing, mix, costs, leverage)

• Outlook going forward

Step 8: Guidance Analysis

If company provided guidance:

• Compare new guidance to prior guidance

• Compare to internal estimates and Street estimates

• Assess credibility (does company have track record of sandbagging? beating?)

• Identify key assumptions behind guidance

If company did NOT provide guidance:

• Note this explicitly

• Provide independent outlook based on results and commentary

Step 9: Update Financial Model

Update estimates for:

• Current year (remaining quarters)

• Next year

• Potentially year after

Show clearly:

UPDATED ESTIMATES:
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
                        Old Est     New Est     Change      Reason
FY2024E Revenue         $XX.XB      $XX.XB      +X.X%      [Brief reason]
FY2024E EBITDA          $X.XB       $X.XB       +X.X%      [Brief reason]
FY2024E EPS             $X.XX       $X.XX       +X.X%      [Brief reason]

FY2025E Revenue         $XX.XB      $XX.XB      +X.X%      [Brief reason]
FY2025E EBITDA          $X.XB       $X.XB       +X.X%      [Brief reason]
FY2025E EPS             $X.XX       $X.XX       +X.X%      [Brief reason]

Step 10: Update Valuation & Price Target

Based on updated estimates:

• Recalculate DCF (use updated cash flows)

• Update comparable company multiples (if peer group has reported)

• Determine new fair value

• Decide if price target changes

Price Target Decision:

• If estimates changed significantly (>5%) → Usually change price target

• If estimates changed marginally (<5%) → May maintain price target

• If thesis strengthened/weakened → May change even without estimate change

Step 11: Assess Rating Impact

Decide whether to change rating:

• If results significantly better than expected + guidance raised → Consider upgrade

• If results significantly worse + guidance cut → Consider downgrade

• If inline or mixed → Usually maintain rating

Consider:

• Stock reaction (up/down/flat?)

• Valuation (expensive/cheap relative to new estimates?)

• Risk/reward (asymmetry shifted?)

Phase 3: Chart Generation (1-2 hours)

Step 12: Generate 8-12 Charts

Create charts focusing on QUARTERLY TRENDS and WHAT'S NEW.

REQUIRED CHARTS (8-12 total):

1. Quarterly Revenue Progression (Bar chart)

   • Last 8-12 quarters

   • Show beat/miss vs. estimates each quarter

   • Highlight current quarter

2. Quarterly EPS Progression (Bar chart)

   • Last 8-12 quarters

   • Show beat/miss vs. estimates

   • Adjusted and GAAP

3. Quarterly Margin Trend (Line chart)

   • Gross margin, EBIT margin, net margin

   • Last 8-12 quarters

   • Show trajectory

4. Revenue by Segment/Geography (Stacked bar OR table)

   • Current quarter vs. YoY

   • Growth rates by segment

5. Key Operating Metrics (Multi-line chart)

   • Customer count, ARPU, units sold, etc. (whatever is relevant)

   • Last 8-12 quarters

6. Beat/Miss Summary (Waterfall or table)

   • Show components of beat/miss

   • What drove variance from estimates

7. Estimate Revision Chart (Before/after comparison)

   • Old FY estimates vs. new FY estimates

   • Bar chart showing change

8. Valuation Chart (P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple)

   • Historical multiple range

   • Current multiple

   • Fair value multiple

OPTIONAL CHARTS (if space allows):

• Peer comparison (if peers have reported)

• Guidance vs. Street comparison

• Cash flow metrics

• Balance sheet highlights (if notable)

Chart Style Guidelines:

• Focus on TRENDS (quarterly progression)

• Highlight CHANGES (beat/miss, estimate revisions)

• Keep simple and clear (this is a fast-turnaround report)

Phase 4: Report Creation (2-3 hours)

Step 13: Create DOCX Report

Use DOCX skill to create 8-12 page report.

See report-structure.md for complete page-by-page templates and formatting requirements.

Key Steps:

1. Create Page 1 with earnings summary and quick takeaways

2. Add detailed results analysis (Pages 2-3)

3. Include key metrics and guidance (Pages 4-5)

4. Update investment thesis (Pages 6-7)

5. Provide valuation and estimates (Pages 8-10)

6. Add appendix if needed (Pages 11-12)

7. Embed all 8-12 charts throughout

8. Add 1-3 summary tables

9. Include complete sources section with clickable hyperlinks

Step 14: Optional - Update XLS Model

If a full financial model exists for this company (from initiation), update it with:

• Actual Q[X] results

• Revised estimates for future quarters

• Updated valuation

Note: For earnings updates, a full XLS file is OPTIONAL (not required like in initiation reports). The DOCX report is the primary deliverable.

If creating XLS, include:

• Quarterly model tab

• Updated annual projections

• Revised DCF

• Updated comps analysis

Phase 5: Quality Check & Delivery (30 minutes)

Step 15: Quality Checklist

Before publishing, verify:

Content:

• [ ] Beat/miss clearly stated and quantified

• [ ] Key drivers explained (not just "strong performance")

• [ ] Updated estimates provided (old vs. new shown)

• [ ] Price target updated or explicitly maintained

• [ ] Rating confirmed or changed with rationale

• [ ] Guidance analyzed (if provided)

• [ ] Thesis impact assessed

Formatting:

• [ ] Page 1 has summary box and key bullets

• [ ] All tables have source lines

• [ ] All figures numbered and captioned

• [ ] Estimates table shows old vs. new

• [ ] 8-12 charts embedded throughout

• [ ] Report is 8-12 pages (not too long, not too short)

Accuracy:

• [ ] Numbers match company's reported results exactly

• [ ] Math checks out (estimates, valuation)

• [ ] No typos in ticker, company name, numbers

• [ ] Charts match text descriptions

• [ ] Date is current

Citations: ⭐ MANDATORY

• [ ] Every figure has specific source with document and date

• [ ] Every table has specific source with document reference

• [ ] Beat/miss analysis cites consensus source with date

• [ ] Guidance changes cite current and prior guidance sources

• [ ] Key statistics have footnotes with specific page/slide references

• [ ] Sources section lists all materials with URLs

• [ ] ALL URLs are CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS (not plain text)

• [ ] Hyperlinks tested and working (Ctrl+Click opens correct page)

• [ ] All SEC filings hyperlinked to EDGAR viewer

• [ ] All earnings materials hyperlinked (release, transcript, presentation)

• [ ] Prior guidance hyperlinked to prior quarter's materials

• [ ] No raw URLs displayed - all formatted as clickable links

• [ ] Earnings call quotes cite specific speaker and approximate timestamp

Timeliness:

• [ ] Report published within 24-48 hours of earnings release

• [ ] All data is from LATEST quarter

• [ ] Consensus estimates are pre-earnings (not post-earnings)

Step 16: Deliver Report

Provide user with:

1. DOCX file: [Company]_Q[X]_[Year]_Earnings_Update.docx

2. Chart files: All PNG/JPG charts (for reference)

3. Optional XLS: Updated financial model if maintained

Brief summary for user:

[Company] Q[X] [Year] Earnings Update Complete

Results: [BEAT / INLINE / MISS]
- Revenue: $X.XB ([beat/missed] by $XXM or X%)
- EPS: $X.XX ([beat/missed] by $X.XX)

Key Takeaways:
■ [Takeaway 1]
■ [Takeaway 2]
■ [Takeaway 3]

Updated Estimates:
- FY[Year]E Revenue: $XX.XB (prior: $XX.XB, [+/-]X%)
- FY[Year]E EPS: $X.XX (prior: $X.XX, [+/-]X%)

Rating: [MAINTAINED / RAISED / LOWERED] [RATING]
Price Target: $XXX (prior: $XXX) - [+/-]XX% upside

Deliverable: 8-12 page earnings update report with updated estimates and valuation.