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Returns Analysis

AnthropicOfficialPublished by Anthropic

  • Skill
  • Content generator
  • Business and productivity
  • Apache-2.0
  • No issues found
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From the author

Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation. Models returns across entry multiple, leverage, exit multiple, growth, and hold period scenarios. Use when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits. Triggers on "returns analysis", "IRR sensitivity", "MOIC table", "what's the return at", "model the returns", or "back of the envelope".
— the description by Anthropic

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

This skill provides a systematic approach to evaluating private equity deal returns by calculating IRR and MOIC across various operational and financial scenarios. It guides the user through gathering essential deal inputs, establishing a base case, and generating multi-variable sensitivity matrices and scenario analyses. The output is designed to support investment committee (IC) decision-making by stress-testing assumptions regarding entry/exit multiples, leverage, and growth.

What it does

  • Collects key deal inputs including entry multiples, leverage, and operating assumptions.
  • Calculates base case IRR, MOIC, and cash-on-cash returns.
  • Generates two-way sensitivity matrices for variables like entry vs. exit multiples and leverage.
  • Performs scenario analysis comparing Bull, Base, and Bear cases.
  • Provides a returns attribution breakdown to isolate the impact of growth, multiple expansion, and debt paydown.
  • Produces a structured summary suitable for investment committee decks.

When to use it

  • When sizing up a potential private equity deal.
  • When stress-testing investment assumptions under different market conditions.
  • When preparing returns exhibits for an investment committee presentation.
  • When performing back-of-the-envelope calculations for quick deal evaluation.

Advantages

  • Standardizes the evaluation process for consistent deal comparison.
  • Highlights the primary drivers of returns through attribution analysis.
  • Enables rapid assessment of downside risks and upside potential.
  • Facilitates clear communication of investment thesis to stakeholders.

Usage examples

“returns analysis for a deal with 8x entry multiple and 4x leverage”
The agent will prompt for remaining inputs like EBITDA, growth rates, and hold period to generate the base case returns and sensitivity tables.
“what's the return at 9x exit multiple with 5% annual growth?”
The agent calculates the specific IRR and MOIC based on the provided growth and exit assumptions, showing how they impact the final equity value.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/anthropics/returns-analysis/download

  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip returns-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Anthropic

Returns Analysis

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs

Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):

Entry:

  • Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)

  • Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)

  • Enterprise value

  • Net debt at close

  • Equity check size

  • Transaction fees & expenses

Financing:

  • Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)

  • Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)

  • Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)

  • Equity contribution

Operating Assumptions:

  • Revenue growth rate (annual)

  • EBITDA margin trajectory

  • Capex as % of revenue

  • Working capital changes

  • Debt paydown schedule

Exit:

  • Hold period (years)

  • Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)

  • Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)

Step 2: Base Case Returns

Calculate:

MetricValue
Entry EV
Equity invested
Exit EBITDA
Exit EV
Net debt at exit
Exit equity value
MOIC
IRR
Cash-on-cash

Show the returns waterfall:

  • EBITDA growth contribution

  • Multiple expansion/contraction contribution

  • Debt paydown contribution

  • Fee/expense drag

Step 3: Sensitivity Tables

Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:

Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple

Exit 6xExit 7xExit 8xExit 9xExit 10x
Entry 7x
Entry 8x
Entry 9x
Entry 10x

EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)

Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)

Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple

Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).

Step 4: Scenario Analysis

Build 3 scenarios:

BullBaseBear
Revenue CAGR
Exit EBITDA margin
Exit multiple
Exit EBITDA
MOIC
IRR
Step 5: Output

  • Excel workbook with:

    • Assumptions tab

    • Returns calculation

    • Sensitivity tables (formatted with conditional coloring)

    • Scenario summary

  • One-page returns summary suitable for IC deck

Key Formulas

  • MOIC = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested

  • IRR = solve for r: Equity Invested × (1 + r)^n = Exit Equity Value (adjust for interim cash flows)

  • Returns attribution:

    • Growth: (Exit EBITDA - Entry EBITDA) × Exit Multiple / Equity

    • Multiple: (Exit Multiple - Entry Multiple) × Entry EBITDA / Equity

    • Leverage: Debt paydown over hold period / Equity

Important Notes

  • Always show returns both gross and net of fees/carry where applicable

  • Management rollover and co-invest change the equity check — ask if relevant

  • Dividend recaps or interim distributions affect IRR significantly — include if planned

  • Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV) — they reduce Day 1 equity value

  • Tax considerations (asset vs. stock deal, 338(h)(10) election) can materially affect after-tax returns

Files

Requirements and compatibility

Written for: Claude Code, Claude apps

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Security

No issues found by our static scan· No issues found

A static scan is not a guarantee. Skills are third-party content: review a skill before you let an agent use it.

Attribution and licence

Published by
Anthropic
Publisher
Anthropic (Official)
Source
anthropics/financial-services · plugins/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/returns-analysis · commit 6056506
Licence
Apache License 2.0 (redistribution allowed)
  • LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
Synced
Also distributed in
anthropics/financial-services

AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by Anthropic.

Download ZIP

The ZIP holds the skill’s files, its licence files and an ATTRIBUTION.md. Download returns-analysis.zip