Returns Analysis
AnthropicOfficialPublished by Anthropic
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- Business and productivity
- Apache-2.0
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AutoGineer summary
Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author
This skill provides a systematic approach to evaluating private equity deal returns by calculating IRR and MOIC across various operational and financial scenarios. It guides the user through gathering essential deal inputs, establishing a base case, and generating multi-variable sensitivity matrices and scenario analyses. The output is designed to support investment committee (IC) decision-making by stress-testing assumptions regarding entry/exit multiples, leverage, and growth.
What it does
- Collects key deal inputs including entry multiples, leverage, and operating assumptions.
- Calculates base case IRR, MOIC, and cash-on-cash returns.
- Generates two-way sensitivity matrices for variables like entry vs. exit multiples and leverage.
- Performs scenario analysis comparing Bull, Base, and Bear cases.
- Provides a returns attribution breakdown to isolate the impact of growth, multiple expansion, and debt paydown.
- Produces a structured summary suitable for investment committee decks.
When to use it
- When sizing up a potential private equity deal.
- When stress-testing investment assumptions under different market conditions.
- When preparing returns exhibits for an investment committee presentation.
- When performing back-of-the-envelope calculations for quick deal evaluation.
Advantages
- Standardizes the evaluation process for consistent deal comparison.
- Highlights the primary drivers of returns through attribution analysis.
- Enables rapid assessment of downside risks and upside potential.
- Facilitates clear communication of investment thesis to stakeholders.
Usage examples
- “returns analysis for a deal with 8x entry multiple and 4x leverage”
- The agent will prompt for remaining inputs like EBITDA, growth rates, and hold period to generate the base case returns and sensitivity tables.
- “what's the return at 9x exit multiple with 5% annual growth?”
- The agent calculates the specific IRR and MOIC based on the provided growth and exit assumptions, showing how they impact the final equity value.
Install
Download the skill as a ZIP:
https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/anthropics/returns-analysis/downloadUnzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:
mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip returns-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills
Documentation by Anthropic
Returns Analysis
Workflow
Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs
Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):
Entry:
Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)
Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)
Enterprise value
Net debt at close
Equity check size
Transaction fees & expenses
Financing:
Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)
Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)
Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)
Equity contribution
Operating Assumptions:
Revenue growth rate (annual)
EBITDA margin trajectory
Capex as % of revenue
Working capital changes
Debt paydown schedule
Exit:
Hold period (years)
Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)
Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)
Step 2: Base Case Returns
Calculate:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry EV | |
| Equity invested | |
| Exit EBITDA | |
| Exit EV | |
| Net debt at exit | |
| Exit equity value | |
| MOIC | |
| IRR | |
| Cash-on-cash |
Show the returns waterfall:
EBITDA growth contribution
Multiple expansion/contraction contribution
Debt paydown contribution
Fee/expense drag
Step 3: Sensitivity Tables
Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:
Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple
| Exit 6x | Exit 7x | Exit 8x | Exit 9x | Exit 10x | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 7x | |||||
| Entry 8x | |||||
| Entry 9x | |||||
| Entry 10x |
EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)
Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)
Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple
Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).
Step 4: Scenario Analysis
Build 3 scenarios:
| Bull | Base | Bear | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | |||
| Exit EBITDA margin | |||
| Exit multiple | |||
| Exit EBITDA | |||
| MOIC | |||
| IRR |
Step 5: Output
Excel workbook with:
Assumptions tab
Returns calculation
Sensitivity tables (formatted with conditional coloring)
Scenario summary
One-page returns summary suitable for IC deck
Key Formulas
MOIC = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested
IRR = solve for r: Equity Invested × (1 + r)^n = Exit Equity Value (adjust for interim cash flows)
Returns attribution:
Growth: (Exit EBITDA - Entry EBITDA) × Exit Multiple / Equity
Multiple: (Exit Multiple - Entry Multiple) × Entry EBITDA / Equity
Leverage: Debt paydown over hold period / Equity
Important Notes
Always show returns both gross and net of fees/carry where applicable
Management rollover and co-invest change the equity check — ask if relevant
Dividend recaps or interim distributions affect IRR significantly — include if planned
Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV) — they reduce Day 1 equity value
Tax considerations (asset vs. stock deal, 338(h)(10) election) can materially affect after-tax returns
Files
- ATTRIBUTION.mdAdded by AutoGineer930 B
- LICENSELicence file added by AutoGineer11.1 KiB
- SKILL.md3.3 KiB
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Requirements and compatibility
Written for: Claude Code, Claude apps
Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta
“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.
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Attribution and licence
- Published by
- Anthropic
- Publisher
- Anthropic (Official)
- Source
- anthropics/financial-services · plugins/vertical-plugins/private-equity/skills/returns-analysis · commit 6056506
- Licence
- Apache License 2.0 (redistribution allowed)
- LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
- ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
- Synced
- Also distributed in
- anthropics/financial-services
AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by Anthropic.
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