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Scientific Problem Selection

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From the author

This skill should be used when scientists need help with research problem selection, project ideation, troubleshooting stuck projects, or strategic scientific decisions. Use this skill when users ask to pitch a new research idea, work through a project problem, evaluate project risks, plan research strategy, navigate decision trees, or get help choosing what scientific problem to work on. Typical requests include "I have an idea for a project", "I'm stuck on my research", "help me evaluate this project", "what should I work on", or "I need strategic advice about my research".
— the description by Anthropic

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

Scientific Problem Selection provides a structured, conversational approach to navigating the research lifecycle. Based on the principles of problem choice over execution quality, this skill helps researchers move from initial ideation to strategic planning. It guides users through nine specific modules—including intuition pumps, risk assessment, and decision tree navigation—to ensure that time is invested in high-impact, feasible problems. By treating research as a series of testable assumptions and strategic decision points, the framework helps scientists avoid common pitfalls, manage adversity, and optimize their research strategy.

What it does

  • Facilitates project ideation using structured intuition pumps.
  • Performs rigorous risk assessment and assumption analysis.
  • Defines success metrics through optimization functions.
  • Navigates complex decision trees for project troubleshooting.
  • Provides strategies for adversity response and problem inversion.
  • Synthesizes research plans into coherent communication packages.

When to use it

  • When choosing a new thesis, postdoc, or lab research direction.
  • When a project is stuck and requires a strategic pivot.
  • When evaluating the feasibility and impact of a new research idea.
  • When planning long-term research strategy or navigating career transitions.
  • When preparing for committee meetings or grant applications.

Advantages

  • Increases research impact by prioritizing problem selection over incremental execution.
  • Reduces time wasted on dead-end projects through early risk identification.
  • Provides a repeatable, evidence-based framework for scientific decision-making.
  • Helps transform crises into opportunities for project growth.
  • Encourages objective evaluation of biological and technical assumptions.

Usage examples

“I have an idea for a new project involving CRISPR, but I am not sure if it is worth pursuing.”
The agent initiates the ideation workflow, asking for a summary and guiding the user through intuition pumps to refine the idea and assess its potential impact.
“My current experiment is failing and I am stuck. Can you help me troubleshoot?”
The agent shifts to the troubleshooting workflow, helping the user identify the core problem, analyze assumptions, and navigate the decision tree to find a path forward.
“I need to evaluate the risks of my proposed research strategy.”
The agent leads the user through a systematic risk assessment, helping to list assumptions, score them by risk level and time-to-test, and identify potential red flags.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/anthropics/scientific-problem-selection/download
  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip scientific-problem-selection.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Anthropic

Scientific Problem Selection Skills

A conversational framework for systematic scientific problem selection based on Fischbach & Walsh's "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering" (Cell, 2024).

Getting Started

Present users with three entry points:

1) Pitch an idea for a new project — to work it up together

2) Share a problem in a current project — to troubleshoot together

3) Ask a strategic question — to navigate the decision tree together

This conversational entry meets scientists where they are and establishes a collaborative tone.


Option 1: Pitch an Idea

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your idea (1-2 sentences)."

Response Approach

After the user shares their idea, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the general area of research and rephrase the idea in a way that highlights its kernel—showing alignment and readiness to dive into details.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask for more detail: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly or even say where you are unsure:

  1. What exactly you want to do

  2. How you currently plan to do it

  3. If it works, why will it be a big deal

  4. What you think are the major risks"

Workflow

From there, guide the user through the early stages of problem selection and evaluation:

  • Skill 1: Intuition Pumps - Refine and strengthen the idea

  • Skill 2: Risk Assessment - Identify and manage project risks

  • Skill 3: Optimization Function - Define success metrics

  • Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Determine what to fix vs. keep flexible

See references/01-intuition-pumps.md, references/02-risk-assessment.md, references/03-optimization-function.md, and references/04-parameter-strategy.md for detailed guidance.


Option 2: Troubleshoot a Problem

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me a short version of your problem (1-2 sentences or whatever is easy)."

Response Approach

After the user shares their problem, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the context of the project where the problem occurred and rephrase the problem—highlighting its core essence—so the user knows the situation is understood. Also raise additional questions that seem important to discuss.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly:

  1. The overall goal of your project (if we have not talked about it before)

  2. What exactly went wrong

  3. Your current ideas for fixing it"

Workflow

From there, guide the user through troubleshooting and decision tree navigation:

  • Skill 5: Decision Tree Navigation - Plan decision points and navigate between execution and strategic thinking

  • Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Fix one parameter at a time, let others float

  • Skill 6: Adversity Response - Frame problems as opportunities for growth

  • Skill 7: Problem Inversion - Strategies for navigating around obstacles

Always include workarounds that might be useful whether or not the problem can be fixed easily.

See references/05-decision-tree.md, references/06-adversity-planning.md, references/07-problem-inversion.md, and references/04-parameter-strategy.md for detailed guidance.


Option 3: Ask a Strategic Question

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your question (1-2 sentences)."

Response Approach

After the user shares their question, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the broader context and rephrase the question—highlighting its crux—to confirm alignment with their thinking.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly:

  1. The setting (i.e., is this about a current or future project)

  2. A bit more detail about what you're thinking"

Workflow

From there, draw on the specific modules from the problem choice framework most appropriate to the question:

  • Skills 1-4 for future project planning (ideation, risk, optimization, parameters)

  • Skills 5-7 for current project navigation (decision trees, adversity, inversion)

  • Skill 8 for communication and synthesis

  • Skill 9 for comprehensive workflow orchestration

See the complete reference materials in the references/ folder.


Core Framework Concepts

The Central Insight

Problem Choice >> Execution Quality

Even brilliant execution of a mediocre problem yields incremental impact. Good execution of an important problem yields substantial impact.

The Time Paradox

Scientists typically spend:

  • Days choosing a problem

  • Years solving it

This imbalance limits impact. These skills help invest more time choosing wisely.

Evaluation Axes

For Evaluating Ideas:

  • X-axis: Likelihood of success

  • Y-axis: Impact if successful

Skills help move ideas rightward (more feasible) and upward (more impactful).

The Risk Paradox
  • Don't avoid risk—befriend it

  • No risk = incremental work

  • But: Multiple miracles = avoid or refine

  • Balance: Understood, quantified, manageable risk

The Parameter Paradox
  • Too many fixed = brittleness

  • Too few fixed = paralysis

  • Sweet spot: Fix ONE meaningful constraint

The Adversity Principle
  • Crises are inevitable (don't be surprised)

  • Crises are opportune (don't waste them)

  • Strategy: Fix problem AND upgrade project simultaneously


The 9 Skills Overview

SkillPurposeOutputTime
1. Intuition PumpsGenerate high-quality research ideasProblem Ideation Document~1 week
2. Risk AssessmentIdentify and manage project risksRisk Assessment Matrix3-5 days
3. Optimization FunctionDefine success metricsImpact Assessment Document2-3 days
4. Parameter StrategyDecide what to fix vs. keep flexibleParameter Strategy Document2-3 days
5. Decision Tree NavigationPlan decision points and altitude danceDecision Tree Map2 days
6. Adversity ResponsePrepare for crises as opportunitiesAdversity Playbook2 days
7. Problem InversionNavigate around obstaclesProblem Inversion Analysis1 day
8. Integration & SynthesisSynthesize into coherent planProject Communication Package3-5 days
9. Meta-FrameworkOrchestrate complete workflowComplete Project Package1-6 weeks

Skill Workflow

SKILL 1: Intuition Pumps
         | (generates idea)
         v
SKILL 2: Risk Assessment
         | (evaluates feasibility)
         v
SKILL 3: Optimization Function
         | (defines success metrics)
         v
SKILL 4: Parameter Strategy
         | (determines flexibility)
         v
SKILL 5: Decision Tree
         | (plans execution and evaluation)
         v
SKILL 6: Adversity Planning
         | (prepares for failure modes)
         v
SKILL 7: Problem Inversion
         | (provides pivot strategies)
         v
SKILL 8: Integration & Communication
         | (synthesizes into coherent plan)
         v
SKILL 9: Meta-Skill
         (orchestrates complete workflow)

Key Design Principles

  1. Conversational Entry - Meet users where they are with three clear starting points

  2. Thoughtful Interaction - Ask clarifying questions; low confidence prompts additional input

  3. Literature Integration - Use PubMed searches at strategic points for validation

  4. Concrete Outputs - Every skill produces tangible 1-2 page documents

  5. Building Specificity - Progressive detail emerges through targeted questions

  6. Flexibility - Skills work independently, sequentially, or iteratively

  7. Scientific Rigor - Claims about generality and feasibility should be evidence-based


Who Should Use These Skills

Graduate Students (Primary Audience)
  • When: Choosing thesis projects, qualifying exams, committee meetings

  • Focus: Skills 1-3 (ideation, risk, impact) + Skill 9 (complete workflow)

  • Timeline: 2-4 weeks for comprehensive planning

Postdocs
  • When: Starting new position, planning independent projects, fellowship applications

  • Focus: All skills, emphasizing independence and risk management

  • Timeline: 1-2 weeks intensive planning

Principal Investigators
  • When: New lab, new direction, mentoring trainees, grant cycles

  • Focus: Skills 1, 3, 4, 6 (ideation, impact, parameters, adversity)

  • Timeline: Ongoing, integrate into lab culture

Startup Founders
  • When: Company inception, pivot decisions, investor pitches

  • Focus: Skills 1-4 (ideation through parameters) + Skill 8 (communication)

  • Timeline: 1-2 weeks for initial planning, revisit quarterly


Reference Materials

Detailed skill documentation is available in the references/ folder:

FileContentSearch Patterns
01-intuition-pumps.mdGenerate research ideasIntuition Pump #, Trap #, Phase [0-9]
02-risk-assessment.mdRisk identificationRisk.*1-5, go/no-go, assumption
03-optimization-function.mdSuccess metricsGenerality.*Learning, optimization, impact
04-parameter-strategy.mdParameter fixationfixed.*float, constraint, parameter
05-decision-tree.mdDecision tree navigationaltitude, Level [0-9], decision
06-adversity-planning.mdAdversity responseadversity, crisis, ensemble
07-problem-inversion.mdProblem inversion strategiesStrategy [0-9], inversion, goal
08-integration-synthesis.mdIntegration and synthesisnarrative, communication, story
09-meta-framework.mdComplete workflowPhase, workflow, orchestrat

Expected Outcomes

Immediate (After Completing Workflow)
  • Clear project vision

  • Honest risk assessment

  • Contingency plans

  • Communication materials ready

  • Confidence in problem choice

6-Month
  • Faster decisions (have framework)

  • Productive adversity handling

  • No existential crises (risks mitigated)

2-Year
  • Published results or strong progress

  • Avoided dead-end projects

  • Career aligned with goals

  • Time well-spent (ultimate measure)


Foundational Reference

Fischbach, M.A., & Walsh, C.T. (2024). "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering." Cell, 187, 1828-1833.

Based on course BIOE 395 taught at Stanford University.

Files

references/01-intuition-pumps.md

SKILL: Intuition Pumps for Scientific Problem Ideation

Overview

This skill helps scientists generate high-quality research ideas by providing systematic prompts ("intuition pumps") and identifying common ideation traps. Based on the framework that most biological and chemical science projects involve perturbing a system, measuring it, and analyzing the data, this skill guides users through structured ideation that can significantly impact how they spend years of their career.

Core Framework

The Three Pillars of Scientific Work

Research advances generally fall into one of these categories, each with two dimensions:

PERTURBATION

  • Logic: Novel ways to manipulate biological systems (e.g., using CRISPR for deep mutational scanning)

  • Technology: New tools for manipulation (e.g., developing base editors, creating whole-genome CRISPR libraries)

MEASUREMENT

  • Logic: Novel applications of existing measurement tools (e.g., using tissue clearing to study liver fibrosis)

  • Technology: New measurement capabilities (e.g., developing tissue-clearing techniques, super-resolution microscopy)

THEORY/COMPUTATION

  • Logic: Using computational tools to make discoveries (e.g., applying AlphaFold to identify protein functions)

  • Technology: Building new algorithms or models (e.g., developing machine learning architectures for biological data)

Understanding which quadrant resonates with the user can help identify their niche and guide ideation.

The Skill Workflow

Phase 1: Initial Discovery Questions (5-10 minutes)

Before diving into intuition pumps, Claude should gather context by asking the user:

  1. What is the user's general research area or field? (e.g., immunology, synthetic biology, neuroscience, protein engineering)

  2. What excites the user most about science?

    • Building new tools/technologies?

    • Discovering fundamental principles?

    • Solving practical problems?

    • Understanding dynamic processes?

  3. What are the user's existing strengths? (Select all that apply)

    • Specific techniques (please list)

    • Computational skills

    • Access to unique systems/models

    • Domain expertise in a particular area

  4. Current constraints:

    • Time horizon for this project? (months/years)

    • Resources available?

    • Must it connect to existing work, or can the user start fresh?

  5. On a scale of 1-5, how would the user rate their current idea?

    • Likelihood of success: 1 (very risky) to 5 (highly feasible)

    • Potential impact: 1 (incremental) to 5 (transformative)

Phase 2: Applying Intuition Pumps

Based on the user's responses, Claude should guide them through relevant intuition pumps from this list:

Intuition Pump #1: Make It Systematic

Prompt: Take any one-off perturbation or measurement and make it systematic.

Examples:

  • Instead of mutating one enzyme, measure kinetic parameters across an entire enzyme family

  • Instead of one CRISPR mutant → genome-wide screen with transcriptomic readout

  • Instead of imaging one condition → high-throughput imaging across thousands of conditions

Prompt for User: What one-off experiment in your field could become a systematic survey?

Intuition Pump #2: Identify Technology Limitations

Prompt: What are the fundamental limitations of technologies you use? These limitations are opportunities.

Examples:

  • Microscopy can't resolve beyond diffraction limit → super-resolution microscopy

  • DNA synthesis can't make complete genomes → develop assembly methods

  • Genetic screens have precise input but imprecise output → develop high-dimensional readouts

  • We do single gene KOs but networks are complex → develop combinatorial perturbation methods

Prompt for User: What technology limitation frustrates you most? How might you turn that limitation into an opportunity?

Intuition Pump #3: The "I Can't Imagine" Test

Prompt: I can't imagine a future in which we don't have ____, but it doesn't exist yet.

Examples:

  • The ability to design highly efficient enzymes like we design other proteins

  • The ability to deliver genome editing payloads to any cell type in vivo

  • 3D tomographic imaging of live cells at molecular resolution

  • Proteome-scale sequencing with the throughput of RNA-seq

Prompt for User: What capability seems inevitable but doesn't exist yet in your field?

Intuition Pump #4: Static vs. Dynamic Understanding

Prompt: We understand biological "parts lists" but rarely understand dynamic processes.

Key Insight: Most observations are single-timepoint, single-perturbation format. But biological systems are dynamic—like humans flowing through Grand Central Station or money through financial systems.

Examples:

  • Understanding growth factor signaling like we understand turning a key in a car engine

  • Time-resolved cell atlases with lineage tracing through entire development

  • Following metabolite flux through pathways in real-time

Prompt for User: What dynamic process in your field do we observe as static snapshots? How might you capture the full temporal or spatial dynamics?

Intuition Pump #5: Pick a New Axis

Prompt: We almost always use time as the x-axis for dynamic processes. What other coordinate could you use?

Example: Instead of time, use "infection progression" markers to enable monitoring asynchronous cells

Prompt for User: What non-temporal coordinate could reveal new biology in your system?

Intuition Pump #6: Create a Technology Platform

Prompt: Instead of answering one question, could you build a platform that enables many questions?

Examples:

  • Antibodies for intracellular targets (not just extracellular)

  • AI that predicts perturbations needed to reach desired cell states

  • Universal genome delivery vehicles

Prompt for User: What platform would transform how your field asks questions?

Intuition Pump #7: Dogs That Don't Bark

Prompt: Why doesn't something exist or occur? Absence can be as informative as presence.

Examples:

  • Why are there no Gram-negative bacteria on human skin?

  • Why do some catalytically inactive enzymes persist through evolution?

  • Why don't certain cell types exist in certain tissues?

Prompt for User: What absence puzzles you in your field?

Phase 3: Avoiding Common Traps

After generating ideas, we must evaluate them critically. Here are the most common traps:

Trap #1: The Truffle Hound

Warning: Don't become so good at one system or technique that you fail to ask questions of biological import.

Bad: "What is the role of p190 RhoGAP in wing development?"
Better: "How do signaling pathways and cytoskeleton coordinate to control wing development?"

Self-Check: Is the question driven by biological curiosity or by what the user is technically capable of?

Trap #2: Applying Existing Tool to New System

Warning: "Let's use CRISPR in my organism" can be valuable but risks crowding and incrementalism.

When It Works: The user is enabling a field that truly needs this capability When It Fails: The tool is already widely applied; the contribution will be incremental

Self-Check: Will this tool application open new biological questions, or just extend existing observations? Claude should help the user evaluate this honestly.

Trap #3: Jumping on the First Idea

Warning: Treating ideas with reverence instead of skepticism. Confirmation bias sets in quickly.

Better Approach: Users should treat new ideas like leeches trying to steal their time. Look for the warts. Develop several ideas in parallel and comparison shop.

Self-Check: Has the user critically evaluated at least 3-5 alternative approaches?

Trap #4: Too Many Fixed Parameters

Warning: Fixing too many parameters at the outset creates a poor technique-application match.

Example of Over-Constraining: "I will use spatial transcriptomics to study antigen-presenting cell and T cell interactions in the tumor microenvironment."

  • This fixes: technique (spatial transcriptomics), cell types, and context

  • If any assumption fails, the project fails

Self-Check: Has the user fixed more than 2 parameters before starting?

Trap #5: Too Few Fixed Parameters

Warning: "I want to do impactful work in cell engineering" → paralysis

Resolution: Constraints engender creativity. Fix ONE parameter at a time and let creativity flow.

Self-Check: Does the user have at least one concrete constraint to work with?

Phase 4: Literature Integration

To ensure the idea has appropriate scope and hasn't been thoroughly explored, Claude should ask:

  1. What are 2-3 key questions or gaps the idea addresses?

  2. What should be searched in PubMed to:

    • Understand the current state of the field?

    • Identify related approaches?

    • Find empirical knowledge from adjacent domains that could inform the approach?

Claude should use PubMed to:

  • Assess how general/specific the problem is

  • Identify relevant methodological advances

  • Find analogous systems or approaches in other fields

  • Determine the degree of competition

Phase 5: Idea Refinement and Output

After working through intuition pumps, avoiding traps, and reviewing literature, Claude should help the user:

  1. Crystallize the Idea:

    • Biological question

    • Technical approach (perturbation/measurement/theory: logic vs. technology)

    • What's novel about this angle?

  2. Articulate Fixed vs. Floating Parameters:

    • What MUST remain constant in the approach?

    • What can be flexible if obstacles arise?

  3. Identify Key Assumptions:

    • What must be true for this to work?

    • Which assumptions are about biology vs. technology capabilities?

  4. Sketch Alternative Paths:

    • If the primary approach fails, what's Plan B?

    • Can the project be designed to succeed regardless of outcome?

Output Deliverable

At the end of this skill, Claude should produce a 2-page Problem Ideation Document containing:

Page 1: Core Idea
  • Title: Concise project name

  • The Question: What biological question is being asked?

  • The Approach: How will it be answered? (Specify perturbation/measurement/computation: logic vs. technology)

  • What's Novel: The unique angle

  • Why It Matters: Potential impact (generality × learning, or technology development)

  • Intuition Pump(s) Used: Which prompted this idea

Page 2: Critical Analysis
  • Fixed vs. Floating Parameters:

    • Fixed: What must stay constant

    • Floating: What can adapt

  • Key Assumptions & Risk Assessment:

    • Biological assumptions (risk level 1-5)

    • Technical assumptions (risk level 1-5)

  • Traps Avoided: Which pitfalls were navigated around?

  • Alternative Approaches: Plan B and Plan C

  • Literature Context:

    • 3-5 key papers that inform or relate to this work

    • Degree of competition (low/medium/high)

    • The user's edge/advantage

  • Next Steps: First 3 concrete experiments or analyses

Key Principles to Remember

  1. Reversal of Polarity: Treat ideas with skepticism, not reverence. Look for flaws before falling in love.

  2. Comparison Shopping: Develop multiple ideas in parallel. The act of comparison improves decision-making.

  3. Fix One Parameter at a Time: Constraints engender creativity, but too many constraints prevent it.

  4. Think in Ensembles: The user is picking a family of possible projects, not a singular path. Flexibility is essential.

  5. Balance Logic and Technology: Novel biology can come from new tools OR clever application of existing tools.

  6. Systematic Over One-Off: High-throughput and systematic approaches often reveal more than single observations.

  7. Dynamic Over Static: Biological systems are dynamic. How can process be captured rather than snapshot?

Getting Started

When the user is ready, Claude should guide them through the Phase 1 questions to begin the systematic ideation process. The key message: spending extra time on problem choice is the highest-leverage activity in science. A well-chosen problem executed reasonably well will have more impact than a mediocre problem executed brilliantly.


This skill is based on the problem choice framework developed by Michael A. Fischbach and Christopher T. Walsh, as described in "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering" (Cell, 2024).

Requirements and compatibility

Written for: Claude Code, Claude apps

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

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Attribution and licence

Published by
Anthropic
Publisher
Anthropic (Official)
Source
anthropics/knowledge-work-plugins · bio-research/skills/scientific-problem-selection · commit e050c2e
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  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
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