Market Sizing Analysis

From the author

Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.

— the description by Seth Hobson

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

Market sizing is a critical component of startup strategy and financial planning. This skill provides a structured approach to estimating market opportunity by utilizing three distinct methodologies: top-down analysis for mature markets, bottom-up analysis for specific customer segments, and value theory for disruptive innovations. It guides users through defining their market, gathering credible data from industry reports and public sources, and applying the appropriate formulas to derive TAM, SAM, and SOM figures suitable for investor pitches and business plans.

What it does

Calculates Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM).
Provides three distinct methodologies: top-down, bottom-up, and value theory.
Offers guidance on selecting the right methodology based on market maturity and innovation type.
Includes a framework for defining market scope, target customers, and geographic constraints.
Lists credible data sources including industry reports, government statistics, and B2B databases.
Supports the creation of investor-ready market analysis and financial projections.

When to use it

When validating the market opportunity for a new venture or startup idea.
During the preparation of business plans or investor pitch decks.
When estimating addressable revenue for a specific product or service.
When you need to justify market potential using credible, data-backed methodologies.
When entering a new market category where traditional industry reports may not exist.

Advantages

Provides a defensible, structured approach to market estimation.
Offers multiple methodologies to suit different business stages and market types.
Helps align long-term vision with realistic short-term financial projections.
Reduces reliance on guesswork by encouraging the use of verifiable data sources.
Increases credibility with investors by using standard industry frameworks.

Usage examples

“Help me calculate the TAM for a new AI-powered email marketing tool for North American e-commerce businesses.”: The agent will guide you to define your target segment, identify relevant industry reports for the total market, and apply the bottom-up or top-down formula to estimate your specific addressable market.
“I am building a pitch deck for a disruptive new fintech product. Which market sizing method should I use?”: The agent will recommend the Value Theory methodology, explaining how to quantify the cost of the problem you are solving and the value your solution provides to estimate your market size.

Install

Download the skill as a ZIP:
https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/wshobson/market-sizing-analysis/download

Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip market-sizing-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Seth Hobson

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

Core Concepts

The Three-Tier Market Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
Defines the universe of potential customers
Used for long-term vision and market validation
Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

SAM (Serviceable Available Market)

Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
Represents realistic addressable opportunity
Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
Used for financial projections and fundraising
Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

When to Use Each Methodology

Top-Down Analysis

Use when established market research exists
Best for mature, well-defined markets
Validates market existence and growth
Starts with industry reports and narrows down

Bottom-Up Analysis

Use when targeting specific customer segments
Best for new or niche markets
Most credible for investors
Builds from customer data and pricing

Value Theory

Use when creating new market categories
Best for disruptive innovations
Estimates based on value creation
Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

Detailed patterns and worked examples

Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.

Files

ATTRIBUTION.mdAdded by AutoGineer1014 B
LICENSELicence file added by AutoGineer1.0 KiB
SKILL.md2.4 KiB
examples/saas-market-sizing.md10.5 KiB
references/data-sources.md9.0 KiB
references/details.md8.8 KiB

Requirements and compatibility

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Security

No issues found by our static scan· No issues found

A static scan is not a guarantee. Skills are third-party content: review a skill before you let an agent use it.

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Download ZIP

The ZIP holds the skill’s files, its licence files and an ATTRIBUTION.md. Download market-sizing-analysis.zip