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Market Sizing Analysis

Seth HobsonCommunityCreated by Seth Hobson

  • Skill
  • Research and analysis
  • Business and productivity
  • MIT
  • No issues found
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From the author

Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.
— the description by Seth Hobson

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

Market sizing is a critical component of startup strategy and financial planning. This skill provides a structured approach to estimating market opportunity by utilizing three distinct methodologies: top-down analysis for mature markets, bottom-up analysis for specific customer segments, and value theory for disruptive innovations. It guides users through defining their market, gathering credible data from industry reports and public sources, and applying the appropriate formulas to derive TAM, SAM, and SOM figures suitable for investor pitches and business plans.

What it does

  • Calculates Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM).
  • Provides three distinct methodologies: top-down, bottom-up, and value theory.
  • Offers guidance on selecting the right methodology based on market maturity and innovation type.
  • Includes a framework for defining market scope, target customers, and geographic constraints.
  • Lists credible data sources including industry reports, government statistics, and B2B databases.
  • Supports the creation of investor-ready market analysis and financial projections.

When to use it

  • When validating the market opportunity for a new venture or startup idea.
  • During the preparation of business plans or investor pitch decks.
  • When estimating addressable revenue for a specific product or service.
  • When you need to justify market potential using credible, data-backed methodologies.
  • When entering a new market category where traditional industry reports may not exist.

Advantages

  • Provides a defensible, structured approach to market estimation.
  • Offers multiple methodologies to suit different business stages and market types.
  • Helps align long-term vision with realistic short-term financial projections.
  • Reduces reliance on guesswork by encouraging the use of verifiable data sources.
  • Increases credibility with investors by using standard industry frameworks.

Usage examples

“Help me calculate the TAM for a new AI-powered email marketing tool for North American e-commerce businesses.”
The agent will guide you to define your target segment, identify relevant industry reports for the total market, and apply the bottom-up or top-down formula to estimate your specific addressable market.
“I am building a pitch deck for a disruptive new fintech product. Which market sizing method should I use?”
The agent will recommend the Value Theory methodology, explaining how to quantify the cost of the problem you are solving and the value your solution provides to estimate your market size.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://mp-staging.autogineer.com/agent-skills/wshobson/market-sizing-analysis/download

  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip market-sizing-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Seth Hobson

Market Sizing Analysis

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

Core Concepts

The Three-Tier Market Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share

  • Defines the universe of potential customers

  • Used for long-term vision and market validation

  • Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

SAM (Serviceable Available Market)

  • Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service

  • Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints

  • Represents realistic addressable opportunity

  • Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years

  • Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics

  • Used for financial projections and fundraising

  • Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

When to Use Each Methodology

Top-Down Analysis

  • Use when established market research exists

  • Best for mature, well-defined markets

  • Validates market existence and growth

  • Starts with industry reports and narrows down

Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Use when targeting specific customer segments

  • Best for new or niche markets

  • Most credible for investors

  • Builds from customer data and pricing

Value Theory

  • Use when creating new market categories

  • Best for disruptive innovations

  • Estimates based on value creation

  • Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

Detailed patterns and worked examples

Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.

Files

ATTRIBUTION.md

Attribution

This folder is an unmodified copy of the Agent Skill "market-sizing-analysis", distributed by AutoGineer (https://autogineer.com/agent-skills).

The skill's own files are unmodified copies. AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by the author or the publisher.

Files added by AutoGineer

  • ATTRIBUTION.md: this file, written by AutoGineer

  • LICENSE: copied from LICENSE

Requirements and compatibility

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Security

No issues found by our static scan· No issues found

A static scan is not a guarantee. Skills are third-party content: review a skill before you let an agent use it.

Attribution and licence

Created by
Seth Hobson
Publisher
Seth Hobson (Community)
Source
wshobson/agents · plugins/startup-business-analyst/skills/market-sizing-analysis · commit 4bde316
Licence
MIT License (redistribution allowed)
  • LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
Synced

AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by Seth Hobson.

Download ZIP

The ZIP holds the skill’s files, its licence files and an ATTRIBUTION.md. Download market-sizing-analysis.zip